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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still